27-30 Jan 2026 Paris (France)
Modeling the risks within the protocol Aave, with an application to portfolio allocation
Louis Latournerie  1, 2  
1 : Ecole Polytechnique
Ecole Poytechnique
2 : ENSAE
ENSAE

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) lending and borrowing protocols enable portfolio managers to take leveraged long and short positions on digital assets without centralized intermediaries, but expose them to a distinctive form of risk: on-chain liquidation triggered by debt and collateral value fluctuations. In this paper, we adapt the classical Markowitz portfolio optimization framework to account explicitly for liquidation risk within DeFi protocols, with a particular focus on Aave-v3. We provide a detailed formalization of Aave's lending, borrowing, and liquidation mechanisms, grounded in the protocol's open-source implementation. We introduce a proportional collateral seizure (PCS) liquidation rule that ensures feasibility and analytical tractability in multi-asset settings. Using an asymptotic expansion under small asset variance, we derive a semi-explicit formulation of the portfolio optimization problem, making it suitable for effective numerical implementation. Numerical experiments illustrate how incorporating liquidation risk significantly alters optimal allocations and the effective risk-return trade-off. Our results highlight the necessity of integrating protocol-specific liquidation dynamics into quantitative portfolio construction in DeFi.



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